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The danger of missing climate change policies in business forecasts
Stefanie Heerwig Natural ResourcesBetween 2010 and 2016, the U.S. coal industry was subject to some of the most extremes booms and busts. Expecting a super cycle driven by growth in emerging markets, big players entered risky acquisitions to increase their market shares — in many occasions with disastrous outcomes.
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Metals Thoughts: The chain
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesGold and silver have generally held their respective ranges since we last discussed and don't show much to encourage that the barriers will change anytime immediately. In many aspects, we have seen some healthy resetting of the table and a few of the things I would look for as encouraging have surfaced, but the supply-demand balance for physical is still worrying.
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All eyes on Brazil: Can energy sector overcome its troubles?
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesIt has been one hell of a year for Brazil. Not long ago, the South American country was the darling of the global oil and gas industry — center stage thanks to its large presalt oil reserves, which technological developments made economically viable. The engine of that optimism was Petrobras, the state oil company that employs 80,000 Brazilians but has been mired in one of the largest corruption crises in the recent history of the industry.
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Metals Thoughts: Two-legged stool
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesGold and silver are hanging somewhat precariously with some of the recent extreme momentum having come off a bit, and both the ETFs and futures markets turning into slight net sellers. I can make an argument either that it’s a respite for another leg higher (prices haven’t collapsed despite spec redux), or that we have a long way to go should buying support not emerge. I think the headlines, largely from central banks will be the determinants here, and all eyes are on the Fed in particular to see how they respond to the two incredibly noisy jobs reports we have seen recently.
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The failed coup in Turkey and the future of energy flow into Europe
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesOil and gas exports do not always flow through the fastest routes from producer nations to consumer markets. If they did, much Azerbaijani oil would likely be exported via Iran rather than across the Anatolian steppe via Turkey and Southeast Europe. Political risk and security considerations are a key factor in these decisions, which are as much about politics as economic efficiency.
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Brexit: The outlook for European renewables and UK’s energy mix
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesThe energy industry must cope with multibillion-dollar projects and long lead times. If there is one thing the industry hates, it is uncertainty. The political tremors that followed the Brexit vote June 23 has left commentators in all sectors speculating as to the precise impact of the decision by UK voters to leave the European Union.
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Metals Thoughts: Spinning our wheels
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesThere has been a fair amount of choppiness to the market in the last week without really getting anywhere from a price movement perspective. Since our close on July 1, we are up about $4, but have had some volatile sessions in the interim — especially Friday after the particularly strong jobs report.
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The impact of Brexit on the oil and gas industry
Stefanie Heerwig Natural ResourcesThe decision by the British people to exit the European Union two weeks ago was for many a surprise and sparked turmoil in global markets. The British pound dropped to a 31-year low, while investors poured money into the dollar, yen and gold — whose price increased by around 20 percent. An estimated $2 trillion was wiped off equity markets worldwide.
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Metals Thoughts: Brexit stage left
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesThe surprise from the Brexit "leave" victory last week is abating a bit, and markets seemed to have settled. However, we — like the Brits — still have plenty to sort out. The most damaging thing about the surprise was how certain everyone was that "Bremain" would carry the day.
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Energy intensity in the US: Which states are the worst offenders?
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesI have written before of the quiet progress the U.S. has made on energy efficiency — dubbed by some as America's "hidden fuel." I have also tried to parse from the speeches of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump what U.S. energy policy might look like under their presidencies, although most of what has been said so far concerns production rather than consumption.
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