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Metals Thoughts: No more bets
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesThe table is basically set for Brexit results (late Thursday night), and we have Janet Yellen's two-day testimony to keep us busy until then. Yesterday's trading had the definite feeling of "wait and see" that we often get before much anticipated events, so it is interesting to see us breaking through the $1,280 support and stops level here.
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Metals Thoughts: Expensive insurance
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesSomewhere between a Brexit vote, global negative interest rate policy, a U.S. election and a less steep fed hike path, traders the world over are finding excuses to go risk-off. Since none of this is altogether new or surprising, it's been fairly moderated in asset prices, but the derivatives have been host to a lot of action.
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Trump takes the complexity out of energy for voters
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesEnergy market watchers had been eagerly awaiting Republican candidate Donald Trump's appearance May 26 at a North Dakota oil and gas conference. Until then, his campaign had been hazy on the details of any energy policies a Trump presidency might bring, other than generic endorsements and calls for support of America's fracking and coal industries. Analysts were left to dig among scattered tweets.
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Metals Thoughts: Uniformly underwhelmed
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesFriday's terrible number for the headline job creation has taken the wind out of the June-hike sails. In case you have been under a rock, the U.S. economy added only 38,000 jobs in May, versus expectations of 160,000 or so. Even if you add back the 35,000 or so jobs that have already come back in from the resolution of the Verizon labor strike, it's a poor number.
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Are we heading toward a future of low oil prices?
Stefanie Heerwig Natural ResourcesAs the third-largest oil price crash over the past 30 years, the latest oil price cycle has raised new questions about the current nature of of the oil market. Experts are split about whether the latest cycle has been a result of a structural change of the oil market or whether it is just business as usual. After all, the discussion centers around one question: "Will the oil price stay low for long?"
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Metals Thoughts: Carried away
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesMetals had a tough month of May, with speculative positioning running out, hawkish FOMC minutes, the dollar strengthening and then breaking the 50 DMA to the downside. Fed chair Janet Yellen's comments Friday at Harvard made it clear that at least July (if not June) is a live meeting, and the market had to immediately reprice the curve.
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The global oil industry: The hybrid case of Statoil
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesStatoil is certainly not among the "Seven Sisters," nor is it even an IOC. However, I will end this series on how international oil companies are coping with the oil price crisis by zooming in on an interesting "hybrid."
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Metals Thoughts: Tourist season
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesThe USD's three-week rally has extended the mighty dollar to a high since late March on the back of some hawkish FOMC minutes last week. Investors immediately repriced interest rate hike bets for June from 5 percent to 32 percent.
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The global oil industry: France’s Total weathering the storm
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesFrance's Total may not be a bona fide member of the "Seven Sisters," but operating in more than 130 countries, it is certainly global. And with annual revenues higher than the GDP of Hungary, it is certainly a supermajor.
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Metals Thoughts: Summer break
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesWith summer rapidly approaching, it seems an appropriate time to hit pause on our weekly focus. Let's take a look at our broader, medium-term macro outlook and establish where upside and downside risks to our base case exist. Here's my version of a summer long-form beach read.
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