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Metals Thoughts: Brave new world
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesBy now you have already read a thousand articles about "What Donald Trump means for _____," and I'll try and avoid that sort of simplistic analysis — primarily, because that assumes certainty in even the beginning of the probability tree, which I don't think even the president-elect has just yet.
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Trump’s chance to make his mark on the energy industry
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesWhat else to write about this week than President-elect Donald Trump? Just hours after one of the biggest electoral upsets in political history, analysts were scrambling to decipher what it might mean for the energy industry. Writing back in June, all I was able to conclude from the Republican candidate's ill-defined statements was that under a Trump presidency, "something is going to change ... we just don't know what." Now it is time, in this brave new world, to work out the "what."
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Metals Thoughts: Good night and good luck
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesThere is little I can add in the way of insight into the political outcome for today's general election, but we can look at the way the chips are stacked for some insight into the potential market reactions. Hillary Clinton's odds for victory look to be anywhere between 70 and 84 percent, depending on which poll aggregator model you use. Most Wall Street polls I have seen skew toward the higher end of that, though there is some innate selection bias.
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Metals Thoughts: Subpar Tuesday edition
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesWith the election only one week away, FOMC tomorrow and nonfarm payrolls on Friday, it's not surprising to see implied volatility catching a bid here, especially as both gold and silver have been able to sustain the upward sloping support from the respective 200-day moving averages.
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The oil industry is on the big screen again with ‘Deepwater Horizon’
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesAnother month, another oil industry story breaking through into popular culture. The oil industry has long served as good fodder for filmmakers and entertainers. However, unlike the strip-club glamour of recent TV series "Blood and Oil", newly released film "Deepwater Horizon" tells a much more serious story about negligence, sacrifice and the road to environmental catastrophe when BP's rig suffered a blowout in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.
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Metals Thoughts: Ample support edition
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesThe big stories this morning all seem to be revolving around base metals/broad industrials, and that has given a bit of a bid to the precious complex in spite of some continued dollar strength. Both gold and silver are hovering around their 200-day moving averages, with gold slightly below it and silver just above — neither of which is much of a change over the last few weeks since the drop in early October.
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Will OPEC’s new game of production cuts actually work?
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesIn September, the dysfunctional family that is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) seems to have managed to put differences aside during negotiations in Algiers, striking a deal to cut output for the first time since 2008. But how the deal will develop is under more doubt.
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Metals thoughts: Sudden stop edition
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesGold and silver both seem to have arrested their falls over the last week, with both sitting squarely on top of their 200-day moving averages. The almost relentless dollar strengthening since mid-September has pretty much every opposing currency weaker, and that has had a follow through to metals across the board.
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Metals Thoughts: A look over the edge
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesWith Golden Week (China) and Rosh Hashanah both occurring, trading volumes are noticeably lighter. Some stronger-dollar, higher-yield dynamics have put precious metals on the back foot. Interestingly, much of this is going on as some of the U.S. economic tailwinds are decreasing a bit.
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Statoil’s headquarters: Sending a message through office design
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesAfter a quick-fire 20-month construction period, the Oslo headquarters of Norwegian state oil and gas company Statoil opened in 2012. It has been described as the "office of the future" and potentially one of the world's best offices. What message does it send about the future at the cutting edge of national oil companies (NOCs) and energy corporations?
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