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Metals Thoughts: Bad Trump and the buck
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesOccasionally, there doesn't seem like too much color to add to the market as it is fairly straightforward. When the macro world's focus turns to all things USD and U.S. rates, we tend to see a really high negative correlation between USD and gold and, interestingly, a drop in realized volatility for metals. We have both of those going in spades right now as 40-day rolling correlations with USD/JPY are at minus-87 percent and 10-day even stronger at minus-94 percent.
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Metals Thoughts: Hard Brexit and soft dollar
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesJust when it seemed that gold had perhaps run out of steam trying to break the $1,200 mark, Donald Trump's press conference was scary enough to many investors to get the USD to weaken a bit and rates to come off and allow for further upside in metals.
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US braces for climate backlash as 109 countries sign Paris Agreement
Andrew Gaved Waste Management & EnvironmentalThe election of Donald Trump has provoked alarm among some policymakers and industry bodies who fear he will row back on the emissions reductions they have worked toward in recent months. As climate leaders met last month in Marrakech, Morocco, to officially sign the Paris Agreement on climate change, committing the 109 signatories to firm targets on carbon reduction, U.S. policymakers pointedly used the opportunity to make clear that the nation did not share the president-elect's views.
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Metals Thoughts: Abandoned resolutions edition
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesWe've been content to sit on our hands once the rally started, as it only seems to be a slight unwind of some of the frothiness that macro markets have priced in for the Donald Trump rally. Our first real tests are approaching quickly with gold's 50 DMA at $1,192 and a slew of support for the USD about $.50 below here.
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Metals Thoughts: A perfect 10
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesTrumpflation — or whatever you want to call it — has basically been priced into markets for perfect execution. The dollar remains incredibly strong against pretty much any cross, up 5 percent in the broad indices and as much as up 16 percent against what had been the darling of the year, JPY.
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Trump, Russia and OPEC’s latest production cut
Lucy Wallwork Natural ResourcesWhile Donald Trump's transition headquarters is still trying to identify someone to fill the coveted Secretary of State position — likely Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson — the wheels of global energy geopolitics outside of Washington keep spinning.
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Protecting pipelines — both inside and out
Alan Kelsky EngineeringConsider that there are about 2.6 million miles of pipeline that crisscross the United States. With that number of miles, the safety of pipelines is admirable. But people still don't trust pipelines. Protesters against the Dakota Access Pipeline have been in the news daily — even after their recent victory in stopping construction. At the same time, TransCanada — owner of the Keystone XL pipeline — is suing the United States government for its refusal to grant them a permit for the United States portion of the pipeline.
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Metals Thoughts: 1 hike to rule them all
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesWe seem to have settled in just a bit over the last couple of weeks, and while the downtrend since the U.S. election is still in place, we have had a few days respite from the selloff and seem ready to challenge the downtrend to the upside.
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Metals Thoughts: Midnight diplomacy edition
Brad Yates Natural ResourcesThe USD is taking a slight breather from its one-way appreciation trade, and that has given metals an opportunity to form something of a base in the last couple of sessions. The ETF selling continues at a pretty steady pace and has done nothing but liquidate since early November.
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‘Energy poverty’ in the Trump era
Lucy Wallwork Natural Resources"Energy poverty" should be a crisis we are used to seeing on television screens, featuring images of the poor in developing countries studying by candlelight and cooking on dung fires. It shouldn't be found on U.S. soil. But as winter sets in, activists are raising concerns that low-income U.S. citizens are being forced to make "third-world choices" between paying for food or utility bills, despite declining energy prices.
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