In September, the dysfunctional family that is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) seems to have put differences aside during negotiations in Algiers, striking a deal to cut output for the first time since 2008. But how the deal will develop is under more doubt.

As an organization, OPEC is still trying to find its way in the "age of shale," now that the cartel has lost its position as the swing producer that can make or break rivals. The strategy pursued since oil prices began to fall in 2014 — of maximizing market share has had little impact on the market. This latest move signals a clear change in direction.

However, the decision appears less strategic than one of desperation. The board table in Algiers was occupied by a struggling group of countries. All are under pressure, but it is Saudi Arabia that has most riding on the success of the cut. A deepening fiscal crisis has forced the country to make the politically sensitive decision to cut generous public-sector salaries, which account for 45 percent of the state budget.

Clemency has been shown to Nigeria and Libya, which will not have to comply with the cuts as they try to restore output following security troubles. But the details of exactly how the cuts will be distributed has not yet been decided upon.

The negotiations have been assigned to a committee, whose members will decide in November. Even if that is achieved, time will tell whether members stand by their word (OPEC does not have a fantastic record of compliant behavior when it is not in a member's interest).

So how high do the Saudis think the price could rebound? One minister has optimistically suggested it could reach $60 per barrel by the end of 2016. Others have their eyes on $70 per barrel in 2017. Or is Saudi Arabia merely trying to trick the market with rhetoric in order to provoke a rally and save its skin domestically?

For Saudi Arabia, the two most troublesome members are Iran (an OPEC member) and Russia (an OPEC observer). Iran is understandably reluctant to cut production as it is finally re-entering the oil export market after years of Western sanctions, and is even less likely to bow to pressure from its great rival Saudi Arabia.

Russia too has been sending mixed signals. Vladimir Putin's combative energy tsar Igor Sechin has ruled out a Russian cut, arguing that it would boost the U.S. shale industry, while his boss has made more encouraging remarks.

The talks in Algiers may have taken five hours, but the end result was a provisional deal, with many details still to be worked out. However, this looks like OPEC on the back foot. The question over the ability of Saudi Arabia to hold together a concerted production cut amid a brutally divided cartel has attracted much cynicism.

In the mean time the rally in prices however short-lived will provide some temporary relief to these fiscally troubled petro-states.