Cooling journalists from across the world recently met at a press conference for the upcoming Chillventa exhibition. I was expecting much of the conversation to be centered on how various countries were progressing with HFC phasedowns – mainly R32, HFOs and how these mildly flammable refrigerants are being treated by the creators of building standards.

So, I was surprised when, without exception, the main question from editors and manufacturers was: So, what is the latest on your U.K. referendum about leaving Europe? Followed, of course, by: Are you a Brexiter or Remainer?

Incidentally, the second most-popular question was whether England could possibly win the Euro 16 soccer tournament. My answer: “Of course we can, but we probably won’t.” The results, so far as I write, seem to be bearing this view out.

But the truth is, for many people in Europe, whether the U.K. is in or out of the EU is the main conversation at the moment. Here in the thick of the referendum action, our news media is full of people putting increasingly emotional arguments for and against, with ever-more dramatic assertions to back up their contentions.

Whilst many politicians are choosing to focus on the macro-issues of defense, immigration, finance and trade, those of us involved in cooling and heating are considering issues closer to our businesses – namely what would happen to the EU regulatory environment if the U.K. did vote to leave the EU.

As you have gathered from my columns over recent months, the F-Gas Regulation looms large over the European cooling industry at the moment, causing us all to think about HFC quotas, upcoming service bans, lower-GWP conversion and the like.

However, there are other plenty of areas where EU regulations dominate HVACR industry thinking. To start, there is eco-design and eco-labeling, which has been driving the manufacturing sector towards producing more energy-efficient equipment. Then, there is the series of EU laws that relate to energy, such as the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive or the Renewable Energy Directive.

Thus, the question from many within the U.K. has been: Will these still apply to us if we leave the EU?

Anyone looking for definitive answers is going to be disappointed because people with more expertise than I seem to be unsure. Uncertainty seems to characterize much of the discussion about Brexit, simply because it is all unknown territory.

Sector experts are at least venturing some opinions, with the consensus being that there would be a lot to lose from leaving the regulatory environment.

James Higgins, partner with energy consultant Ecuity, wrote: “There are huge swathes of European legislation which affect the safety, usage and energy performance of heating and cooling products installed in the UK. Leaving the EU is unlikely to mean that these standards will no longer influence us, as few of the industry’s products are manufactured for a single national market.”

Higgins points out for reasons of simplifying trade, it may be pragmatic to continue with much of the EU legislation. He points to Norway as a non-EU member, which has adopted approximately three-quarters of EU legislative acts into their national legislation in order to promote easy access to the Single Market.

Higgins also notes that the U.K. is legally bound to EU climate targets, such as the 2020 goal for a 20 percent renewable energy contribution.

Following this thinking, it would seem wise to continue to apply carbon-lowering regulation, such as EPBD and F-Gas, to ensure that the U.K. meets the legal obligation.

However, the U.K. has been willfully operating in breach of its EU-imposed legal limits on air quality, so clearly legal obligations are not always a major driver.

This brings us back to F-Gas. Given the change in practice that the revised regulations are requiring from the cooling industry – in terms of converting systems to lower-GWP refrigerants – and the sheer weight of bureaucracy that the quota reductions, equipment and use bans, and standards revisions that have followed, you might think that the industry would happily opt out of these obligations in the event of Brexit. But in the cold light of day, would it be practical or desirable?

There would still be the overarching need to reduce carbon, so the industry would certainly still need to do something to reduce GWP. But, if it were to opt out of European HFC reduction targets, it would eventually be required to align with the global HFC phasedown regime that is currently being discussed under the Montreal protocol.

And, let’s not forget, many of the new refrigerants being introduced actually promise an energy-efficient advantage over those they are replacing, thus bringing cost and carbon savings anyway. So, is it really worth considering getting off the F-Gas train anyway?

Of course, if the U.K. votes to leave the EU on June 23, that is when the real planning would have to start in earnest.

But I for one hope all this is just hypothetical. For cooling, the EU rules, while painful in some cases, have imposed a much-needed requirement control over inspection and leakage. They are ushering in a new generation of lower carbon refrigerants, so voting to leave all this would be a massive retrograde step.

Energy Secretary of State Amber Rudd stated on record that Britain should vote to remain in the EU in order to preserve low energy bills, ensure energy security and to protect the climate. While I don’t often agree with Rudd’s policies in areas like renewables, I now find myself firmly in her camp.