This the second part of a two-part article on the state of the world collector car market.
We may be nearing the close of the age of the motor car as we know it. What started in 1886 when a Benz first traveled through the streets of Germany may be coming to an end.
Soon we may have the first true "auto" mobiles on our roads — driverless cars — lounge chairs on wheels where we can work on our computers while the car's computer does all the driving.
In the first part of this article, we looked back on this history of the automobile and car collecting. Here in the second part, we'll look at the international values for cars by era as well as the future of car collecting.
Antique Cars
Antique Cars are described as cars manufactured until 1904. These are the oldest cars in the world. They are cars for the true aficionado who likes the "smoke, smell and clatter" of a basic vehicle. As such, they are the preserve of the enthusiast, but also the top-end collector who wants a truly representative collection of motoring history.
These are the so-called London to Brighton Cars as they qualify for the longest-running car rally from Hyde Park in London to the Brighton seaside. From the 1980s when maybe 60 or 70 cars entered this event and it was mainly an English affair, it has grown to be an international phenomenon with about 500 cars entered every year. Many years ago, people wouldn't have thought that 500 pre-1905 cars survived, but they keep coming out of the woodwork every year.
The average price of Antique Cars (based on cars in the top 100 sales) has not moved for 20 years. However, it is a different story with the lower value cars that have risen considerably in price during that period. These cars will remain mostly for the enthusiast because you can't just jump into one and take it for a drive.
Veteran Cars
Veteran Cars were constructed from 1905 to 1918. This period represents the transition from cars as playthings of the rich to more utilitarian vehicles, but also the rise of the grand luxury brands.
While the London-to-Brighton Rally has driven demand for early cars, there is no such high profile event to drive collector prices of veteran cars. Few cars in this bracket have attracted big sums in recent years, and in 2014-15 not one car made the top 100 in auction sales.
Vintage Cars
Vintage Cars are those manufactured from 1919 to 1930. They represent the first era of mass transport when the Ford Model T ruled the roads. In the international market, they are now the most difficult cars to sell.
The people who collected these cars, restored them and rallied them are disappearing fast. Many cars are coming onto the market, but the young collectors don't have the passion for them. Cars that were once the staple of the old car movement are now in sheds with the sons and daughters of the restorers who can't find buyers for them.
In 1993, 31 percent of the top 100 cars sold at auction came from this period of motoring history, but in 2014 only two cars made the top 100.
The exception appears to be cars that can be used in prestigious international events such as the Mille Miglia and Le Mans Classic. Cars such as vintage Bentleys enjoy a strong club following and entry to these blue-ribbon events. Their international prices reflect this demand.
Other less valued brands, such as Chrysler, with specific models that raced at Le Mans or the Mille Miglia are now enjoying higher prices for these specific models which competed.
Post-Vintage Cars
The Post-Vintage Era encapsulates perhaps the greatest of all coach-built cars made from 1931 to 1945. These are extravagant and flamboyant cars created when luxury cars were one-off designs.
These are the cars of Pebble Beach and Villa d'Este. 20 years ago they comprised almost 40 percent of all top 100 sales, but today only 15 percent of sales come from this era.
Classic Cars
Generally regarded as cars that were nowhere in the market, these cars built from 1946 to 1964 have been the big sellers of recent years when the baby boomers came into the market and began buying the cars of their youth. A couple of years ago, they represented more than 50 percent of total sales. At the top end, they are Ferrari, Maserati and Porsches, and these cars drew other brands along with them.
This is where most of the top value sales of recent years have come from, but their status as the drivers of the auction market is under challenge from the so-called Post-Classic Cars.
Post-Classic Cars
As the auction buyers drop out at the top end because of age, new buyers come in at the bottom end and lust after the cars of their youth. They get to a point when they can afford to buy a quality car for leisure and the market heats up.
This era of cars built from 1965 to 1974 is predicted to be the hottest sector of the market in the next few years. It is already about a third of top 100 sales.
Modern Cars
The Modern Era from 1975 to 1999 will be the next to rise. What is good about the cars of this era is they are getting valued by a new generation of buyers. Time will tell which cars will emerge as the winners and which as the losers in this era of manufacturing and design.
Contemporary Cars
New cars are finding their way onto the auction stages. Cars such as McLarens are both valuable and rare even though comparatively new.
Owners of these cars see high prices, and they wonder what their cars will be worth. They are being placed at auction to see what price they will fetch. They are then legitimized as collector cars.
Looking to the future
The same principles will apply in the future for car collecting.
The traditional markets of the U.S. and Europe will be supplemented by emerging economies. The last decade saw collector car interest growing in Eastern Europe. The wealthiest strata of the post-Communist society looked to the same hobbies and investments as their western counterparts, joining buyers from the Middle East, too.
Along with the consistent rise in the market has been the emergence of classic car buying funds, particularly in Europe where interest rates are low. Promising 10 percent returns, these funds buy cars at auction, and keep them for maybe five years, show them at prestigious shows once in a while to keep them seen in the marketplace and then sell them at auction for modest but reliable price gains.
We have also seen cars being sent to restoration firms in places such as the Philippines to be brought up to concours condition then being placed in the major international auctions. These cars can be perfect in almost every way except sometimes their provenance may not be complete.
The two biggest emerging buyer markets will be China and India. Up to now, the Chinese and Indians have found it difficult to establish car collections at home by importing cars. The stock of great cars in China was almost nonexistent. There was little car ownership during the hardline communist era. Now, museums are popping up across the country as new car ownership and increasing wealth drives interest in older cars.
The market in India is slightly different. From the days of the Raj, India has had a wonderful stock of great cars. Up to the 1990s, there was leakage out of the country, but a number of collectors ensured many of the best cars stayed in the country and now it is difficult to export them. Under socialist governments, it was also difficult to import cars to India. The rules are now being relaxed as the economy is opened up and it should be possible for Indians to import classic cars.
I spoke at the Heritage Car Club of India in New Delhi last year, and seven collectors in the room owned 1,700 cars between them.
Last year, $808 million worth of collector cars were sold at auction in the U.S. and $224 million in the U.K. Between the two countries, they had 84 percent of the global auction market that covers seven countries where auctions were held.
The principles of collecting
I will close this article with a list of the principles of car collecting that drive the market.
The first is rarity versus value. I hear again and again from people who say they have one of only three of a particular model left in existence. The view is that this makes the car valuable, but it is not true. There are grand marques and grand models that are highly desirable and they are keenly sought after, and this drives value.
Next is the idea of cars as investments. The 1980s showed that, like all commodities that are traded, what goes up does come down. The fact that world record prices have been achieved for Ferraris in recent years does not hide the fact that overall, prices have dropped recently. The sense of nostalgia among the baby boomers sent the price of muscle cars through the roof briefly a decade ago.
It is a matter of riding the roller coaster. In the late 1980s, professionals were establishing retirement funds to buy classic cars. They helped drive the price up, and it crashed down on them.
It is when low production volumes coincide with desirability and demand that prices rise. Added to that, a car can truly break all the accepted rules and value ranges if it is truly beautiful.
Provenance is more important every year, especially at the top end. It is now possible to recreate a $5 million car from parts for less than $1 million. It is being done.
Cars with continuous history fetch higher prices. Motorsport history is always a plus. A car with race history is worth more than one without.
The old rules also still apply. Originality rules over cars restored with replica parts. Often newer restorations are better than older restorations when car restoration was less sophisticated and inferior materials were used
Cars that can be used are generally more valuable than similar cars that do not qualify for prestigious events. A London to Brighton, Le Mans or Mille Miglia car always finds a buyer at a good price.
Show-winning cars attract a price premium if the show was recent, not so much if it was 20 years ago.
Sometimes cars that were owned by famous people command higher prices but not always. Elton John sold his cars at auction for double the going prices, but it would be hard to attract a big premium for a car once owned by an Australian prime minister.
So what is the best collector car to buy? I think that it is the same advice the art auctioneers tell their clients. There is no simple answer. I say to buy the car you like no matter how humble it is and to buy it to use it.
Don't buy it for capital appreciation unless you study the ebb and flow of the market and understand the generational demographics of the old car market. And even then, your average returns could be better than the stock market or the property market, but only if you buy wisely.