The Canadian retail sector has seen several closures this year — Target, Future Shop and Black's, to name a few. Combined with the country's current economic state, the holiday season ahead might not bring the most positive outlook for retailers.

However, the economy has seen a positive shift after experiencing two consecutive quarters of decline. If this provides any hope at all to the retail industry, how will shoppers respond? With bricks-and-mortar stores competing with online vendors, how will Canadians choose to spend their dollars this season?

The first two quarters of 2015 saw Canada's GDP in a decline, resulting in a legal declaration that the country was indeed in a recession. With the loonie's value falling below 75 cents for the first time since 2004, many wondered if this economic state would parallel that of the United States, circa 2009. However, third-quarter results were recently made available, and it appears things are starting to turn around.

The Financial Post recently reported that the Canadian economy has turned a corner "away from a technical recession and toward a sustainable growth path." The path to a stronger economy may still be slow, if not bumpy, and some experts are remaining cautious.

The oil sector was responsible for the boost, but not all sectors are on the rise. Though, BMO's chief economist, Douglas Porter, points out that Canada may still be aligned for a surplus by the end of the year.

Third-quarter numbers released by Statistics Canada back up Porter's argument, as the country experienced a 0.3 per cent increase in monthly GDP for July. With notable shopping events still to come in the billion-dollar retail industry — such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Boxing Day perhaps the GDP is facing another surplus in the year's final quarter.

It's also important to remember the state of the economy did not influence major retailers such as Target and Future Shop to shut down. A notable shift in consumer behaviour was to blame, among other issues.

With the dawn of online and mobile shopping, consumers now shop several big-box retailers at once, comparing prices and deals. Placing an order online does not limit them to the confines of their present geographic location, the way they would be if they wanted to buy a television at a local electronics store.

The statistics continue to grow in online shopping's favour TechVibes reports that 52 per cent of North Americans have shopped online for reasons such as convenience and information storing.

And convenient indeed. They go on to report a breakdown of shoppers who have ordered from the comfort of their bed, while they were in the shower, at a restaurant and even at a funeral!

Behaviour like this continues to eat away at traditional bricks-and-mortar retailers, with a greater choice of products and lower prices driving shoppers to the Web. It also eats away at Canadian retailers losing out to their American or global competitors. In the midst of a recession, this might not be the most encouraging piece of information.

With Black Friday coming up, how do the numbers look?

Marketing Magazine recently reported the findings of a Mintel survey that asked if Canadians planned to purchase any holiday gifts on Black Friday. And the results? Only 12 per cent said yes. A mere 5 per cent planned to shop for gifts on Cyber Monday, the online shopping "holiday" that follows Black Friday.

Canadian retailers believe the newness of these prominent shopping days are at fault for the lack of interest from consumers. As the years go on, will this catch on the way it has in the States?

One must wonder, however, about the wording of Mintel's survey question. Let's assume a number of Canadians are looking to leave their holiday gift shopping to the last minute. It would be interesting to see the percentage of people looking to buy themselves items, though, on Black Friday perhaps a pair of expensive boots that are finally on sale, or seasonal items that will need to be cleared out in a few weeks.

One should also account for impulse buyers. Consumers might not plan out a purchase more than two months in advance (at the time they were surveyed), but what about the morning of Black Friday, when they receive an email from a retailer offering a deal too great to pass up? Chances are that 12 per cent figure will grow as Black Friday approaches.

I recently wrote about American tourists visiting Canada to extend the value of their dollar. Would Americans consider crossing the border to get a great deal, at an even better price, considering their stronger dollar? If they choose to extend their stay, they would also be contributing to revenues in the hospitality and tourism sector.

Retail estimates, like current economic estimates, remain hopeful. Ad Age reports that the National Retail Federation expects holiday spending to total $630 billion. That's still a few billion dollars injected into the Canadian economy via retail, if statistics prove to be correct.

The revenues for individual retailers are still unknown, as is the longevity of some retailers notably struggling to survive in Canada, but the holiday shopping season might just serve as a bright light at the end of a troublesome fiscal year. We will find out as the season progresses.