With the election only one week away, FOMC tomorrow and nonfarm payrolls on Friday, it's not surprising to see implied volatility catching a bid here, especially as both gold and silver have been able to sustain the upward sloping support from the respective 200-day moving averages.

While none of those three events quite yet looks to be in the "tossup" range of probabilities, the compounding effect of three major data points/events is enough to have everyone paying attention, regardless of whether they were up too late last night pontificating on the relative merits of various forms of confections.

Generally, here is how we view things here on the desk for the next seven days:

1. FOMC: Hold, but with a statement to include the strong-yet-vague implication of a looming rate hike. With only one meeting left, they obviously can't say "this year" without painting into a corner, but we will get something along the lines of "data continues to improve, should warrant ..."

2. NFP: 150K to 250K is what I consider the two standard dev range where anything outside of that raises eyebrows. Even a two handle would be hawkish, and yet ahead of the election, it may be overshadowed a bit, especially since there is one more NFP before the Dec. 14 FOMC. Consensus is 175K, but we are a bit more bullish than that — call it 190K.

3. Election: The popular vote race is growing ever tighter, but the key is the electoral college for the actual outcome. Even accounting for some fading in enthusiasm among Hillary Clinton supporters and a "reverse Obama effect" in which Trump will likely outperform his polling numbers (silent support), this still looks to be about 3:1 outcome in favor of Clinton. I'm not saying what I do/don't want, purely acting as handicapper here. Because of East Coast swing states, we will likely know with decent certainty early in the evening, about 8:30 p.m. ET or so.

Of the three, clearly the last will have the largest short-term market effect, but the market is so sensitive to the memory of the Brexit vote that risk will be brought in well ahead of time and mitigate some of the potential effects.

One final note on that: Brexit's victory doesn’t mean the polls are wrong about Trump. Polls showed Brexit was tight; it was betting markets that had the outcome wrong.

Bull Case

• Outside of a massive rally, and obvious profit-taking opportunity, I don't think anyone is selling precious before the election.
• Gold Spec positioning is right back to the 50-week moving average. Not out of bounds either way, but a solid 50 percent or so off the highs.
• Gundlach recession indicator triggered last month on the U-3 unemployment rate crossing its own moving average, but this time is different?

Bear Case

• Call skew came flying back into the market as nervous money managers seem to be buying calls ahead of the election, which will likely cap any major upside.
• FOMC should be a hawkish statement, even if a bit muted ahead of the election to avoid any prospect of potential accusations of "pulling a Comey."
• Carney staying an extra year has the GBP/USD stronger under relief of a steady hand.
• Strong Q3 GDP number caught a few off guard.
• We'll discuss more when this week is in the rearview, but inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months on shelter, healthcare and energy costs no longer deflationary.
• 10-year has created a foothold at 1.85 percent, and the DXY is holding 98 well. I think correlations will break down some on headlines for the next seven days, but longer term, these matter as headwinds against precious.

Chart

From fivethirtyeight.com. Our desk view is that it is slightly tighter than this, if only because of the silent Trump supporters and the disaffected Clinton support. A three-sided coin would probably have to look something like a cylinder, and one of those sides is a surprise outcome — especially as Clinton victory seems priced in, albeit with a bit of insurance purchased.

Coin Toss

I don't see anyone selling ahead of the election, but the downward-sloping 50 DMA converging with $1,300, could be some resistance. $1,315 beyond that, and then we start talking about the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud at $1,325.

Medium-term implieds may be getting a bit overbid on the wings, but we'll give it a chance to run first. Higher.