Paul Zukowski provides a monthly economic report that gets past the boring stuff with a little humor and a lot of insight. His goal is to equip you with the economic analysis tools you need to help keep competitors from eating your lunch.
Usually there's nothing like a presidential election to sharpen the discussion of job creation and economic growth.
Then comes this year's race.
All we got was a lot of unfocused debate on whether America needs to be reinspired to greatness or is already great. And does anybody know how to measure terms like "great"? Isn't it just an empty superlative word like good, better and best? Of course it is, because in whose opinion is something great?
For me as an economic observer, it all comes down to comparing numbers and apportioning credit where it is due. All too often our leaders try to take credit for something that is a natural result, a phenomenon that is acted upon by titanic forces beyond our control — like the tide in the ocean.
Speaking of rising tides, the broadest measure we have of America's economic activity is gross domestic product (GDP), a measurement of all the goods and services produced in an economy. GDP growth has remained below 2.7 percent for the previous seven quarters — but growth is growth, however tepid.
Things in the job market are also kind of plain vanilla lately. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' October report issued Friday:
- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October.
- The unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent.
- Employment continued to trend up in healthcare, professional and business services, and financial activities.
- Thus far in 2016, employment growth has averaged 181,000 per month, compared with an average monthly increase of 229,000 per month in 2015.
These various growth figures, combined with a smidgen of inflation for consumers, has many economists speculating about an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve Bank. Nothing happened at their November meeting, but all eyes will be on their next meeting to be held in December. Inflation remains below the Fed's target rate of 2 percent but is creeping closer to that level.
The end result or conclusion to be drawn from these figures could be that they do not seem to be enough to affect the outcome of the presidential race. While "It's the economy, stupid" may have given Hillary Clinton's husband an advantage in his first campaign for president, today the "stupid" economy isn't much help to any candidate.
Perhaps that's why political pundits and economic critics have been talking about other things besides jobs.