It’s long been held that a college education is worth what it costs. According to College Data, continuing tuition increases have brought the average cost of a Bachelor of Arts degree for the 2017-18 school year to a record high of $9,970 for in-state students attending a public college.

Yearly tuition at private colleges for the same school year averages a whopping $34,740. And that doesn’t include books and fees or room and board. Despite this, numerous online sources continue to affirm that getting a college degree is worth whatever it costs.

In reality, better answers to the question may be "it depends," and "it’s complicated."

What College Really Costs

To begin with, college tuition costs can’t be neatly summarized in a few statistics. Out-of-state tuitions are commonly about twice the cost of in-state tuitions. But only about 12 percent of students at private schools pay full pop. These are only a couple of variables among many.

Finally, any answer to the question "Is a college degree worth what it costs?" comes down to its worth and cost to a particular student — generalizations on the subject have to be taken with a degree of skepticism. As recent, more thoughtful articles in both The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal point out, whether college is worth it or not depends on who you are and what you’re planning to get a degree in.

Another factor that’s becoming more apparent in 2018, but that’s still not often included in estimations of cost-effectiveness, is that repaying loans for college isn’t a dependable process and isn’t always fair — some students have been able to get promised relief from full repayment, but many more have not.

As a student, you may have a plan to repay college loans by working in a field where they’re gradually forgiven, only to find, sometimes years later, that you’ve been disqualified over a technicality or that your application for relief was never processed. That uncertainty has to be included in your estimate of cost vs. worth.

The Earnings Gap

Although determining costs can be tricky, benefits are better understood. In 2018, unemployment rates for high school graduates were around 5.3 percent; rates for college graduates were 2.5 percent.

Male college graduates have lifetime earnings nearly $1 million more than high-school graduates. Benefits of a college degree are less for females, but still exceed $600,000.

The research also shows that recent college graduates find jobs faster and are more likely to be working in a field they’ve chosen and find rewarding.

Uneven Distribution of Benefits

But even the benefits side of the equation requires some cautionary footnoting. Students aren’t randomly selected for college educations. The same qualities that motivate them to attend college — importantly, a willingness to work hard to achieve goals and generally higher intelligence than noncollege attendees — make them more desirable in the workplace with or without the degree. Comparing earnings outcomes for grads and nongrads has to account for this selection bias, which makes determining the real benefit of a college education for an individual student more complicated.

Unfortunately, race, gender and class also importantly affect the value of a degree. Hispanic and black students and women generally benefit comparatively less from a degree than white males. This isn’t an inconsiderable difference.

The New York Times article on the benefits of college included research results from the "Panel Study of Income Dynamics" that determined the value of a degree for 18,000 Americans:

  • your chances of attending an elite college (whose graduates enjoy better paying jobs) are far less for black and Hispanic students, even those from wealthy families, than for white students from middle-class families.
  • although middle-class white graduates earned 162 percent more than those with high-school educations, the comparative benefits of a degree are far less for female, minority and poor students.

Also, the benefits are unevenly distributed to begin with. STEM graduates, with degrees in science, technology, engineering and mathematics financially benefit from a college degree for more than others. Unfortunately, minorities and women have experienced a number of well-publicized barriers to entry in these same fields both as students and as job-seekers.

What To Do About It

For students and their families, the decision to attend college has to be influenced in part by the financial benefits, but perhaps the most important consideration is: how motivated is this student? A motivated woman of color from a poor family — from the group that benefited least — has a better chance of succeeding in college and benefiting from the degree than a white male who attends college only because his family expects it.

If, statistically speaking, you’re in a group that enjoys fewer benefits, that doesn’t mean you can’t succeed. Barack and Michelle Obama are obvious proof that you can. But you’re going to have to work harder, both to get into the college and desired field (especially if it’s a STEM field), and then, after graduation, to become beneficially employed. That’s not fair, but it’s reality.

For all students, probably motivation is the most important issue. If you really want a college education, and especially if you want to learn a specific field, then you should do it. The benefits will follow. If you have no particular motivation to attend college, and particularly in view of the high costs and the uncertainty of student loan forgiveness, it might be better to wait until it’s something you really want to do.