Yet again, housing took a step back in May after taking a step forward in April. It is a pattern with which builders are becoming all too familiar.

Despite optimism that housing is poised for a big comeback, the industry continues to experience modest, erratic growth. For every driver that should be propelling homeownership forward there is another that is holding it in check.

It is beginning to look like the current state of affairs is not a temporary setback but the new status quo.

After reaching an eight-year high in April, new single-family home sales (by number of units) fell by 6 percent in May compared to downward readjusted figures for April, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Housing starts remained virtually unchanged, down 0.3 percent from April, and requests for new permits rose just 0.7 percent, reports HUD and the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The analysts at Dodge calculate single-family residential construction (in dollar value) declined 4 percent in May compared to April. And the American Institute of Architects states activity in mixed residential/commercial practices was more or less stagnant.

The one bright spot was a slight uptick in the sales of existing homes, up 1.8 percent in May compared to 1.7 percent in April — the highest increase in nine years, according to the National Association of Realtors. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun attributed the increased activity in existing home sales to current owners benefiting from the rise in prices to buy up or downsize, noting that first-time buyers are still struggling to enter the market.

Just a few months ago, builders were expressing optimism that conditions would improve in the spring. Now, the lackluster numbers notwithstanding, the National Association of Home Builders announced that builder confidence jumped two points in June to 60, its highest level since January 2016.

Builders reported increased consumer interest, leading them to believe business will get better in the second half of the year. The NAHB also pointed out that while month-over-month figures have been inconsistent, year-over-year housing starts are up 10 percent.

Yet the industry faces a number of challenges. The newly released State of the Nation's Housing 2016 report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies sounds a promising but cautionary note. While acknowledging the housing market has regained momentum, it also notes homeownership has been on an unprecedented 10-year downtrend, hitting its lowest point last year.

The problem is not that people do not want to buy homes, but that they cannot afford to finance them. A number of factors, including "a backlog of homes in foreclosure, tight credit, weak incomes growth and impaired credit histories" are preventing would-be buyers from entering the market.

This situation should eventually ease, states the report, but only gradually and over some period of time. In addition, builders trying to respond to the current demand for more housing are having their own difficulties with a lack of available lots, labor shortages, increases in the cost of materials and added costs due to increased regulation.

Industry economists continue to point to an improved economy, low unemployment and affordable mortgage rates as the keys to turning around sales, as they have done previously. However, other factors are not the same as they have been in the past:

  • Young adults are getting married and forming households much later in life.
  • The majority of home ownership is in the hands of an aging population.
  • Salaries are not keeping up with the cost of living.
  • Workers have to carry a greater burden of healthcare costs and financing their retirement.
  • Debt and high rental costs make saving for a down payment more difficult.
  • There is a critical shortage of entry-level homes in the market.

Taken together, these factors will create a drag on the industry for some time, meaning builders can expect more of the same roller coaster ride in business in the months to come.

Welcome to the new normal.