Now, don't get me wrong. Linear video isn't going away anytime soon. Live sports, news and real-time programs like "American Idol" and "The Voice" will keep people watching live, linear TV and tuning in to appointment television for the foreseeable future.
However, 2014 may be the year that cable television engineers will finally stop having to focus so much of their energy on launching new linear video channels.
With the invention of a new genre — binge programming — where programs are designed to viewed in a binge fashion and at the viewers own schedule, we may have finally witnessed the top in the number of video streams.
Of course, VOD has been around a growing for quite a while, but until the launch of programs like "House of Cards," "Orange is the New Black "and "Alpha House," there wasn't a viable business model that didn't start with programs on linear television.
Even if a good portion of future viewing was going to be via nonlinear methods (VOD, DVR, streaming etc), the belief was that everything needed to be launched via a well-distributed, real-time linear channel. Then, it could be moved to the nonlinear world.
However, the new binge programming, on-demand-only programs from Netflix and Amazon may have provided the first real path that avoids the linear channel requirement.
If every program doesn't necessarily need to "go live" in order to reach a mass audience, perhaps they won't. And if new programs don't need to "go live," there may not be a need for all of the linear channels that need to be squeezed into our systems (let alone any significant new launches outside of the sports genre).
Although it is unlikely that any major programmers are going to begin shutting down their linear channels right away (as long as they are profitable), it does seem reasonable that the growth may slow and begin to flat-line. Of course, they'll probably want to test the new model first. When we see the first binge programming announcements from traditional providers, we'll know the process has begun.
On the technical side, this may mean that aside from sports launches (not every pro team and college conference has its own channel yet), allocating new QAMs for the next set of new linear services may cease to be a big issue. Of course the bandwidth will still be necessary. If 4K TV sales take off, the existing channels may need a bit more space. And even if the linear services don't need new bandwidth, every extra bit will likely go into new VOD and IP (DOCSIS) uses.
It's unlikely to happen overnight, but perhaps we will look back at 2014 as the year we reached the nonlinear tipping point and saw the end of overall growth in linear channels. For engineers, this will surely change the regular activity and daily focus.
In the long run may change job descriptions and skills requirements as well. The good news in all of this is that the technical aspects of the industry are always changing and life is always interesting.