The Aug. 3 announcement of the EPA Clean Power Plan was not only met with surprise, but also huge opposition.
Being in some respect stricter than previous targets, the plan could set an example for other countries at the UN Climate Change Conference beginning in November in Paris. However, it may also fail in its implementation right from the start.
The EPA's plan seeks to reduce carbon emissions from power plants by 32 percent by 2030 nationwide, given a 2005 baseline. That's 2 percent more than the 30 percent proposed previously. Specific targets vary from state to state with the aim of providing enough flexibility for states to adjust their energy mix to a lower level of carbon emissions.
On the public forefront of the opposition is Patrick Morrisey, West Viriginia's attorney general, who announced just minutes after Obama's proposal that 15 Republican state attorneys general were preparing to file a legal challenge to the plan. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) took another preemptive strike by urging states not to submit the required plans (a strategy that might actually backfire as the federal government gets the power to set state-specific plans if the latter don't meet their deadlines).
With such an opposition, the EPA's plan could be doomed to fail right from the start, not to mention the fact that a potential Republican presidency from 2016 onward would probably mean its immediate end.
But maybe the plan is not as radical as at the first look or, more importantly, needed given the future impacts of climate change.
One the one hand, states like Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana have somewhat less stringent goals under the new plan compared to earlier proposed figures. Also, while plans for how states will comply with their respective targets are technically due next year, the proposal foresees no penalty for a two-year extension. So most states could delay until 2018.
On the other hand, the proposal might make it harder for states rich in natural gas to meet their targets. The earlier version of the plan sought to accelerate the ongoing shift from coal-fired power to natural gas, but the final plan aims to keep the share of natural gas in the nation's power mix the same as it is now (maybe taking into account the falling international oil and gas prices and the fact that shale gas and oil has become less profitable).
Instead, the revised plan relies more heavily on renewable energy sources like wind and solar, aiming at 28 percent of power coming from renewables by 2030 compared to 22 percent in previous proposals.
One thing is for sure, the coming discussions over the proposal will be hot — and hopefully lead to a greener and cleaner energy future. (Check out my article on the potential of renewable energy in the U.S.: Can solar compete with fossil fuels?)
