Last time I wrote in these pages, I talked about the worrying long-term implications of the halving of global oil prices for oil-exporting countries. However, today I want to look at the flip side — the implications for those commodity-importing and manufacturing powers for whom the stars seem to be aligning. In particular, the emerging markets.

The IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard has called the reality brought about by the price collapse a "complicated mosaic of implications." While Brazil and Russia suffer, many of the "winners" of the last few months are seizing the opportunity of more balanced accounts to push through reform.

I spoke in my previous article about the pure good luck enjoyed by leaders such as Vladimir Putin in coming to power just as oil prices were starting their upward trajectory. When Putin came to power in 2000, the inflation-adjusted global oil price for the year was $37.55 per barrel, a figure he saw rise to over $100 by 2008.

Today, however, the winner in the global oil price lottery is perhaps India's Narendra Modi. He came to power as prime minister on May 7, 2014, when oil prices were $94 per barrel and has since seen that fall to a current range of $45-50. Since his election, the former tea-seller has already gained something of a reputation of a "rock star" politician, and the global economic movements have given a boost to his hopes of fulfilling the high expectations of Indians.

The BRIC group of emerging markets (Brazil, Russia, India and China) makes for an interesting study of the divergent fates of energy importers and exporters. The four-strong group is split right down the middle.

On the one hand, the Russian economy is famously facing collapse, and the Brazilian economy is facing the prospect of its complex deepwater fields (the discovery of the Tupi field in 2006 led former President Lula to declare that "God is Brazilian") becoming economically unviable. Not to mention the corruption scandal currently sending shockwaves through Brazil's political institutions.

On the other hand, both India and China look set to make great gains.

In 2013, India — which produces little oil — imported 2.8 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). Following his landslide election, Modi made promises of domestic reforms designed to revive an Indian "economic miracle" that has started to look less miraculous since 2010.

In their book "An Uncertain Glory," Amyarta Sen and Jean Dreze suggest that the failure to provide essential services such as education and health, and suitable infrastructure has been a drag on growth in India. The new lighter energy-import bill may enable the government to balance its finances and give Modi the fiscal flexibility to follow through on some of his pledges, to address the structural limits to India's growth and to enact reforms that make that growth more inclusive.

Modi has already seized the moment to taper down fuel subsidies, deregulating diesel prices last October and winning praise from the IMF. Eliminating fuel subsidies is a notoriously bold move with a history of directly angering voters, but the downward pressure on global fuel prices means that India will reap a fiscal benefit of several billion dollars while avoiding a consumer backlash.

China, another recent winner in the oil lottery, faces its own challenges. China imported 6.57 million bpd of oil in 2013 and its plans to "gasify" the Chinese economy will mean increased imports of natural gas too — the price of which, as you might expect, is following the downward trajectory of oil.

Despite a recent slowdown in growth, China is still aggressively seeking sources of oil and gas to fuel its industrialization process. In fact, Chinese leaders have spotted the opportunity presented by falling oil prices and have been stockpiling the cheap oil at tank farms in an effort to insulate itself from future price volatility by boosting strategic reserves.

But China's next challenge is to improve the quality, rather than the quantity, of its growth. That means difficult structural reforms that reduce corruption, reduce pollution and make the country's large enterprises more efficient.

The political will appears to be growing — ambitious reforms are gathering momentum, and the drop in oil prices will help that happen in China, too. The greatest challenge is to reconcile the government's ambitious growth targets with these reforms, and China needs all the help it can get from its external environment. The fiscal dividend of cheaper oil imports will be key.

This is shaping up as a battle of Asian emerging markets versus the rest. Asia was showing better export figures than other parts of the emerging markets toward end of 2014, and this is no doubt related to the fact that the region is home to few commodity exporters. No Asian country makes it into the list of the top 20 global oil exporters and only two — Indonesia and Malaysia — sneak into the top 30.

China and India have made great gains through policies of export-led industrialization. However, a combination of high oil prices and the growing energy needs born of the high growth trajectories they have both achieved has meant there has been little room for the brave reforms both countries need.

But unlike their fellow BRIC members Russia and Brazil, the pendulum has swung back in their favor over the last 10 months, and it is now down to brave political choices if they are to capitalize on their lottery win.