Earlier this month, a beaming Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro announced on his weekly television show "En contacto con Maduro" that he had secured a $5 billion loan from the Chinese government. This adds to the estimated $56 billion the country has loaned to Venezuela since 2007 — funds that are designed to reverse the decline in output from Venezuelan oil fields.
This show of support suggests a greater resilience in the Chinese-Venezuelan relationship than some thought and is one sign of the gradual shifting of traditional alliances that may become the hallmark of the new oil price environment.
When oil prices first began their descent and Venezuela's cash crisis deepened, the government's initial strategy was to embark on an emergency diplomatic tour to the Middle East, targeting OPEC decision makers. But Maduro's attempts to convince Saudi royals to cut production and stabilize global oil prices fell on deaf ears. Failing that, Maduro turned to his lender of last resort — China.
This latest Chinese bailout cannot come soon enough for Venezuela. The oil-rich nation has been hit disproportionately by the oil price collapse over the last year, coming on the back of a number of years of high pork-barrel spending and economic mismanagement.
Escalating levels of violent crime, scarcity of basic goods, a crumbling healthcare system and dwindling foreign reserves have begun to earn Venezuela a place on global lists of failing states. The world's highest inflation of over 200 percent means the price of a staple arepa (traditional cornbread snack) has increased four-fold in just nine months.
The rationale for China, however, is less clear. China has a long history of offering "no strings attached" loans to commodity-rich South American countries that struggle to raise funds from the IMF and on international capital markets.
According to think tank The Dialogue, which tracks Chinese lending in the region, China has provided more than $119 billion in loan commitments to Latin American countries and firms since 2005, more than those of the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and U.S. Export-Import Bank combined. Almost half of that has gone to Venezuela.
The risk of insolvency in these countries is commonly tempered by backing the loans with natural resources, most prominently oil, for which China seemed to have an insatiable appetite. But now that China is facing a potentially long-term economic slowdown, and a glut of oil on world markets, it no longer needs to lock in shipments of heavy Venezuelan crude.
It is possible that China's $5 billion may buy preferential access to contracts in Venezuela. In Beijing, Maduro also signed new agreements on gold and mining concessions for Chinese firms. However the Chinese largesse looks more like a strategic move, marking its territory in an area that was historically America's "backyard."
Economically, Venezuela looks dangerously close to becoming a Chinese vassal state. While China is not interested in directly opposing the U.S., by building such strong links with countries like Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina, Beijing is certainly reducing the room for Washington's political influence, and opportunities for U.S. companies.
The news of the $5 billion may have surprised policymakers in Washington. Relations between the U.S. and Venezuela hit rock bottom in 2008 when the U.S. ambassador was given 72 hours to leave the country and the U.S. State Department website maintains the official line that the "U.S.-Venezuelan bilateral relationship has been tense in recent years due to a variety of policy differences."
But a series of recent visits by State Department representative Tom Shannon to Caracas, aimed at "normalizing diplomatic relations," offered a glimmer of hope of a less antagonistic future. Shannon also met with Maduro and his powerful sidekick Diosdado Cabello in Haiti in June — possibly prompted by the U.S.-Cuban detente — suggesting the two governments may put aside their ideological differences in the name of finding "areas of mutual interest."
But Venezuela's open-door policy to the Chinese complicates this.
Regional analyst Nick Miroff describes Latin America as a "perplexing place for U.S. diplomacy," and last month's move is only the latest instance of a regional player rebelling against the Washington consensus. While the U.S. remains Venezuela's largest trading partner, Venezuela is losing its negotiating power with a post-shale-boom U.S. no longer desperate for its crude. However, the U.S. still has a clear interest in preventing the rise of hostile states in its neighborhood.
When oil prices started their sharp ascent in the 1970s, new alliances were made on a geopolitical grounding underpinned by fossil fuels. The founding of the OPEC cartel was perhaps the most prominent, and the U.S.-Saudi relationship began to solidify as the now-ubiquitous concept of "energy security" first emerged.
Today, as oil prices tumble, alliances are shifting once again. Not only is OPEC beginning to fragment as it loses grip on the levers of a world economy swamped with oil, but newly defined "areas of mutual interest" are emerging between other nations. The shape these new alliances will take is unpredictable, but if the U.S. thought the $50-per-barrel world order might nudge Venezuela back into its orbit, it appears to be mistaken.