The energy industry must cope with multibillion-dollar projects and long lead times. If there is one thing the industry hates, it is uncertainty. The political tremors that followed the Brexit vote June 23 have left commentators in all sectors speculating as to the precise impact of the decision by UK voters to leave the European Union.

This distaste for uncertainty applies not only for global and oil and gas actors, but also for investors in nuclear and renewable energy sources. Inevitably at this stage, the answer to most questions is "we simply don't know" — at least until new prime minister Theresa May begins implementing her policies.

However, let's look at the broad outlines of what this might mean for both the energy mix in the UK and how that affects renewable energy across Europe. Prepare yourself for a lot of "ifs."

Impact on the UK's energy mix

There has been much talk since B-day about the "four freedoms" demanded by the EU from its members — free movement of goods, people, services and capital. The decision by UK voters to leave the EU will have little impact on how gas flows across borders in Europe, and will likely have little impact on European energy relations.

However, there is clearly an open question over how policy will be formed once UK legislation has been disentangled from its neighbors.

Energy did play a minor role in the Brexit debate, and we have seen warnings that the decision to leave the EU may endanger the UK's commitment as a leader on climate change policies, enshrined in the landmark 2008 Climate Change Act. However, we should no make too much of the alarm bells.

Despite the UK Independence Party's (UKIP) claims that "our current energy policy is dictated by Brussels," EU member states in fact have the right to determine their own internal energy mix.

There is concern that the UK's transition to renewables could be put at risk by Brexit. The official energy policy produced by UKIP, whose ideology has driven much of the shift in public mood toward today's Euroscepticism, describes climate change as "so last-century" and casts doubt on the UK government's commitment to wind farms — bizarrely reminding us that "sometimes the wind doesn't blow."

However these sentiments are unlikely to be translated into policy as a whole. UKIP has only one Member of Parliament and does not drive the policy agenda. The EU is holding members states to a target of 20 percent of energy needs from renewables by 2020, and the UK is not likely to water down these stringent targets. In fact, many European countries worry they are losing a crucial ally in energy and climate action.

Nevertheless, uncertainty reigns, and industry has warned that the post-EU outlook for renewables may be negative, especially considering the imminent loss of funding from the Luxembourg-based European Investment Bank (EIB), which has invested billions in clean energy projects in the UK.

A possible boost for nuclear and fracking

While emissions targets are unlikely to be affected by the messy divorce with the EU, the UK now has more freedom to choose a different route when deciding how to to get there.

The biggest implications may be for nuclear energy, an energy source that attracts much less hostility in the UK compared to countries like Germany and France. UKIP is particularly enthusiastic about nuclear, advocating for it as a "vital part of the energy mix" and arguing one nuclear plant an produce as much electricity as 2,077 wind turbines. Brexit is likely to give the government more freedom on this point.

Ironically, one government advisor has warned that an £18 billion ($24 billion) investment by French power company EDF in the Hinkley Point nuclear power station in West Somerset (a constituency that voted to leave) could fall victim to the uncertainty unleashed by Brexit. The project was set to provide 25,000 jobs.

When it comes to hydraulic fracturing, Greenpeace warns the split with EU law means fracking will be rolled out across the UK. But their warnings focus on potential pro-fracking leaders like Boris Johnson, who has said that "no stone should be left unfracked" in London. When Johnson abandoned his leadership bid, the outlook for fracking companies became less favorable.

Having served as Home Secretary for so long, May has not made her intentions for other policy areas clear. She has a mixed record on energy and the environment, and many saw her as likely to provide greater continuity on energy and environmental policy from Cameron's government.

However, her surprise move to close the climate change department has been criticized by experts and fellow politicians. Responsibility was transferred to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

In the meantime, the Environment and Climate Change Comittee (ECCC) — a group of Members of Parliament — has launched an inquiry into the implications of leaving the EU for UK climate policy, particularly looking at what it means for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology being developed.

More questions than answers

The UK now has two years to take on the monumental task of disentangling its legislation from years of EU directives, many of them on energy. Much can happen in two years. The shape of the new government under May will determine much of what a post-EU energy policy will look like.

Free of the anti-fracking and anti-nuclear sentiment across the English Channel, both of those industries will likely be given a boost. But the policy detail is as yet anyone's guess.